US Initial Jobless Claims: A reading well above 3 million seems unavoidable – Nordea

Analysts at Nordea provide an overview of what to expect from upcoming US initial jobless claims.

Key quotes

“In terms of today’s initial claims number, consensus is at 3.5 million which is even higher than last week.” 

“A reading well above 3 million seems unavoidable and we see a highly asymmetric risk picture that leans towards a much higher number than consensus.”

“Looking further ahead, we expect initial claims to drop materially, although remain at historically high levels. A drop by 25-50% in each of the coming few weeks could be on the cards, leaving the total number of claims until the April Establishment Survey around 7.5-11 million with much depending on today’s number.”