The Netherlands: Short but sharp recession – ABN Amro

Economists at ABN Amro analyze the impact of the coronavirus on the Netherlands.

Key quotes

“We expect GDP to shrink roughly 3.5% this year. The main economic contraction will take place in the first and, above all, second quarters (-1.3% and -4.5% qoq respectively)." 

“Assuming that most restrictions will be lifted in June, the economy can then start to revive in the summer. We think that growth will not start climbing to a higher level until 2021.”

“We distinguish between consumer spending that is expected to be hit hard by the coronavirus (some 40%) and spending that will be largely unaffected (some 60%).”