US: Nonfarm payrolls well above the consensus – TDS

Currency markets have been very well-behaved following the release, although economists at TD Securities do not see a compelling reason that it would shake the status quo. The report has done nothing to alter the macro or policy expectations.

Key quotes

“Payrolls rose 225K in January, well above expectations. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 point, but the participation rate rose 0.2 points. Overall, the labor market continues to show strength. We expect more slowing in employment the year ahead.”

“We remain biased toward broad USD firmness. EUR/USD near-term path remains tilted to the downside (1.0879/1.0925) as the region's growth prospects continue to dim amid supply chain disruptions due to the viral outbreak.” 

“We think USD/ JPY's tactical bias is to the downside. Moreover, our dashboard indicates that the pair is about 2% rich and there is an overhang of stale longs. We view 108.00/50 as the next near-term objective.”