UK: Risk of endless Brexit looming - TDS

In view of analysts at TD Securities, the risk of Brexit getting kicked into the very long grass rises materially if the UK PM Theresa May fail to get her deal over the line in late April.

Key Quotes

“If Brexit remains unresolved on 2 May, it's likely that the Conservative Party will fare poorly in local elections. Pressure will mount on Theresa May to resign, and we think that betting markets are wrong to think that she is most likely to leave after Brexit later this year.”

“While she can't be booted out until mid-December, the party will search for ways to push her earlier. One such possibility is a change to the rules governing confidence votes within the Conservative Party.”

“In this scenario, a Conservative Party leadership race would kick off sometime in May, and is likely to be a long one. MPs will be eyeing up a long-term stint at the head of the party. With a leader selected over the summer and the party's annual Conference at end-September, it's unlikely any fundamental Brexit progress will be made in the coming months.”

“In this scenario, the new UK leader ends up returning to the EU in October to ask a further extension, likely to end-March 2020 to break the impasse.”