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8 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: What if USD/JPY rally only a 25% discount of Japan's policy succeeding? - HSBC
As HSBC notes, the OECD measures of purchasing power parity place “fair value” for USD/JPY at 105, thus "under a hyper-successful reflation strategy, one would expect the JPY to be considerably undervalued not overvalued, say a level like 120 on USD/JPY" HSBC strategists note.
The bank brings up a theory which "paints the move above 90 in a different light..." they say, as "the market may simply be attaching a 25% probability to an overly successful reflation strategy, one that would see USD-JPY move from 80 to 120."
"We saw the market apply a similar approach during the euro crisis where spot would reflect a varying probability of the tail risk of euro break-up. But in Europe, the FX market was attaching a probability to policy failure, in Japan they are attaching a probability to excess success" HSBC concludes.
The bank brings up a theory which "paints the move above 90 in a different light..." they say, as "the market may simply be attaching a 25% probability to an overly successful reflation strategy, one that would see USD-JPY move from 80 to 120."
"We saw the market apply a similar approach during the euro crisis where spot would reflect a varying probability of the tail risk of euro break-up. But in Europe, the FX market was attaching a probability to policy failure, in Japan they are attaching a probability to excess success" HSBC concludes.