When are Aussie retail sales and how could they affect AUD/USD?

Aussie retails sales overview

The calendar is a busy one for the Aussie today, starting with retail sales for the month of Feb and scheduled for 11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK, (0130GMT).

In recent months, results have been less than impressive following a dubious end to 2017's impressive final quarter's comeback in the sector. However,  February produced an upside surprise with a  0.6% m/m gain and 3.0% y/y. Analysts at Westpac look for a muted 0.2% rise in Mar, in line with consensus:

"But we look for 0.8% on inflation-adjusted Q1 turnover, above the median forecast of 0.6%. This means we expect the report to show lower inflation over the quarter, with aggressive price discounting in many areas."

How could retail sales affect AUD/USD? 

Technicals lean bearish with a bear flag forming on the daily sticks and RSIs are biased down. The 50% Fib of 2016-18 rally at 0.7482 remains a key hurdle for the bears. but a break there opens longer term risk to the 2001-2018 uptrend at 0.7156.  On the upside, rallies should struggle through the 0.7643 end of March low.

Key notes:

• AUD/USD analysis: Chinese trade balance data key for Aussie's trend
• Forex today: thin markets, dollar catches modest bid, Iran focused, traders await key Asian data

About Aussie Retail sales:

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it's considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.