US: Expect a 0.2% increase in total retail sales - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect US core (“control”) retail sales to have increased a healthy 0.4% m-o-m in October, in line with healthy labor markets and steady income gains.

Key Quotes

“The hurricanes had varied effects on September core retail sales. For October, we expect core retail sales to have recovered mostly from any residual impact from the hurricanes. Among noncore components, we expect sales at auto dealers to have declined slightly. October light vehicle sales slowed from the strong pace in September, which was boosted by high demand for replacement vehicles following the hurricanes.”

“Although there still was some residual replacement vehicle demand in October, it was not enough to sustain the strong pace in September. Moreover, retail gasoline prices trended lower in October following a weather-driven increase in September. This implies that sales at gasoline stations may have fallen in October. Altogether, our ex-auto retail sales forecast is an increase of 0.3%. We expect a 0.2% increase in total retail sales.”