US: LEI offers signals of continued economic growth ahead - Wells Fargo

Analysts from Wells Fargo, noted that the Leading Economic Index (LEI) continued to trek higher in July, showing now 11 consecutive monthly gains, a positive sign for continued economic growth ahead.

Key Quotes: 

“The Leading Economic Index (LEI) continued to trek higher in July, climbing 0.3 percent over the month. The
LEI has strung together 11 consecutive monthly gains, a positive sign for continued economic growth ahead.”

“The LEI increased 0.3 percent in July despite a drag from building permits after yesterday’s disappointing housing starts print.”

“The LEI has increased for 11 consecutive months dating back to last September. The last time this feat was achieved was in mid- 2015, which turned out to be the strongest year of the recovery thus far (2.9 percent full year real GDP growth).”

“Our primary recession forecasting model utilizes the LEI as a key input, and with another positive print today the model indicates that the probability of a recession in the next six months is low.”