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The AUD/USD pair extended its recent downward trajectory and dropped to near four-week lows, albeit has managed to recover few pips thereafter.
Currently trading just above mid-0.7800s, the pair traded with a negative for the ninth straight session and today's fall was primarily led by RBA Governor Phillip Lowe’s comments, showing readiness to intervene in the FX markets. Lowe also identified low wage growth as one of the key risks to the Australian economy, which further dented sentiment around the already weaker Australian Dollar.
Meanwhile, a fresh wave of global risk aversion trade, in wake of escalating geopolitical tensions, coupled with weaker trading sentiment around commodity prices was also seen weighing on riskier/commodity-linked currencies, including the Australian Dollar.
• Forex Today: AUD weakest in Asia on RBA jawboning, US CPI in spotlight
The selling pressure, however, seems to have abated for the time being as traders now brace for the much-awaited US CPI data, due for release later during the NA session. The latest inflation figures would be a key determinant of the Fed's next monetary policy action and hence, should provide a fresh directional impetus for higher-yielding currencies - like the Aussie.
• US: CPI likely increased to 1.7% y/y in July – Danske Bank
Technical levels to watch
Immediate support is pegged near 0.7830 area, below which the pair is likely to accelerate the fall towards the 0.7800-0.7790 important support. A follow through weakness now seems to pave way for continuation of the pair’s near-term downward trajectory towards testing 50-day SMA support near the 0.7735-30 region.
Meanwhile, on the upside, any recovery move back above 0.7875 level might continue to confront some fresh supply near the 0.7900-0.7910 region, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering bounce towards its next hurdle near 0.7965 horizontal level.
