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Currently, Gold spot is trading at 1233.30, down -0.11% or (137)-pips on the day, having posted a daily high at 1235.75 and low at 1227.81.
How does Gold look if Trump's promises impact the US economy later in 2017 and at the beginning of 2018? Not one, but several investment banks and senior strategists do expect this scenario to materialize and growth to dance between 3% - 4%. Furthermore, the lack of any yield from Gold extends a significant debate as for how to measure its value on investment and retirement portfolios due to unstable economic conditions.
The last 7-trading sessions witnessed a back to back comeback based on political uncertainties all over the world from the US to Europe, Middle-East, and China. Is the 'armageddon' expectation worth the time and resources to boost Gold prices beyond current levels?
Historical data available for traders and investors indicates during the last 6-weeks that Gold spot had the best trading day at +1.41% (Jan.5) or 1664-pips, and the worst at -1.11% (Jan.18) or (1331)-pips.
Just too many people; not enough Gold
Byron King at Market Insider noted, "There’s immense, pent-up demand for gold in China, and it’s already a massive pull on the world’s gold resources. Chinese gold demand - both at the state level, and the teeming millions of individuals - is part of a story that’s not well-understood here in the West."
King further writes, "When you look at the other factors Jim Rickards has highlighted, like China’s increasing debt, the problems with demographics, ghost cities. The Chinese people have picked up enough signals to start preparing for the next crisis. That’s why many Chinese are trying to preserve whatever wealth they’ve accumulated. The safest way to preserve wealth will always be gold. However, there simply isn’t enough gold being produced to meet this demand.
The Dragon continues at the top in Gold production
Yibada reports, "China has been named as the world's largest gold producer for the 10th year in a row. The country produced more than 453.5 tonnes of gold last year, according to ifeng News via GB Times. This is a 0.76 percent increase from 2015 figures, asserting China's position as the biggest gold producer in a span of one decade."
The report continues, "China's gold reserves are now at 1,842 tons, making the country second to South Africa with the largest gold resources. Aside from gold, China's minerals business is also spread across other resources. Chinese imported iron ores account for almost 80 percent of use, while copper adoption constitutes almost 50 percent"
Technical levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are aligned at $1264 (200-DMA), then at $1292 (high Nov.10) and above that at $1307 (high Nov.4). While supports are aligned at $1206 (low Feb.3), later at $1178 (50-DMA) and below that at $1156 (low Jan.4)). On the other hand, Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3) seems extended inside the overbought territory. Therefore, there is evidence to expect limited Gold gains in the near term.
On the long-term view, Gold would need a close and open above $1270 to signal the end of the bearish trend that started back in September 2011. To the upside, barriers are aligned at $1245 (short-term 50.0% Fib), then at $1253 (long-term 23.6% Fib) and finally above that at $1273 (short-term 61.8% Fib). On the other hand, supports are aligned at $1216 (short-term 38.2% Fib), later at $1180 (short-term 23.6% Fib) and below that at $1146 (low Jan). If prices make their way above $1270 the next challenge would be aligned at $1380 and at that point, Gold bugs face a gargantuan resistance region that has not been broken in 2013, 2014 and the latest in 2014.
Political market moves more interesting than boring old data
