Economic wrap: FOMC remained on hold - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered an economic wrap.

Key Quotes:

"The FOMC remained on hold, as expected, at 0.50%-0.75%. There was little fresh news in the statement - risks are still seen "roughly balanced", activity is expected to expand at a "moderate pace" and that warrants "only gradual increases" in rates. The Fed conceded that the sentiment surveys have firmed: "Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late" and their confidence on inflation has firmed a touch, the Fed noting: "inflation will rise to 2 percent"  (vs "Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent" previously). Otherwise, current conditions are largely unchanged, job gains are still considered "solid" and activity is growing at a "moderate pace".  There are no strong clues here that the Fed is agitating to hike in March.

US private payrolls (ADP) rose 246k in Jan (vs 168k expected). The service sector climbed 201k from 147k previously (revised from 169k), while employment in the goods producing sector rose 46k from December's 4k gain (revised from -16k). This is a strong result and poses upside risk to Friday's payrolls report. ISM manufacturing rose from 54.5 to 56.0 (vs 55.0 expected) – a solid outturn. Admittedly the new orders to inventory ratio slipped a touch but the employment sub-index hit nearly 2 1/2yr highs while prices paid rose to 5 1/2 yr highs. Construction spending fell 0.2% in Dec (vs +0.2% expected) but upward revisions to previous periods left the report with a positive tone overall."