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GBP: More weakness in store – Danske Bank

Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that on a three- to six-month horizon, we think the substantial current account (CA) deficit of around 5% of GDP in the UK combined with high uncertainty about near-term FDI and portfolio flows into the UK, implies a sharp fall in domestic demand and a weaker GBP to support exports.

Key Quotes

“We forecast EUR/GBP at 0.88 in 3M, 0.90 in 6M. Longer term, we expect the GBP will stabilise to some extent given attractive valuations. With EUR/GBP at 0.90, both our Medium-Term Valuation Model (MEVA) and PPP models suggest the GBP would be significantly undervalued with a close to 2 sigma deviation from fair value estimates of 0.769 and 0.780 (MEVA and PPP, respectively). We target EUR/GBP at 0.88 in 12M.”

US nonfarm payrolls forecast to have advanced by 195,000 in July - RBS

Research Team at RBS, notes that May’s dismal US employment gain (+11,000) was followed by an explosive advance (+287,000) in June. Key Quotes “Look
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BoE Preview: MPC will vote to cut Bank Rate by 25bps – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC, expects that the UK MPC will vote to cut Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.25% and increase the QE target by £50bn by renewing its program
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