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4 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: BoE meet to be a non event – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman analysts suspect that the upcoming BoE event will be a non event.
However, that is not to say that the UK will lack interesting developments in the week ahead. The team note that there is a more interesting development on Thursday, the day the two-day MPC meeting concludes. They write, “NIESR will report its rolling three-month GDP estimate. A small positive reading is likely, though this may be anticipated if the Jan services PMI on Tuesday pops back above the 50 boom/bust level, which it dipped below for the first time since December 2010.”
They note that in January 2011, the services PMI snapped back well above 50 and also on Thursday, the next BOE Governor, Carney will appear before the Treasury Committee in parliament. They feel that he is likely to show a more activist stance, which in current circumstances means more dovish. Further, they see that December trade and industrial production may pose some headline risks, but are too dated, given that Q4 GDP has been released, to contain much new information.
However, that is not to say that the UK will lack interesting developments in the week ahead. The team note that there is a more interesting development on Thursday, the day the two-day MPC meeting concludes. They write, “NIESR will report its rolling three-month GDP estimate. A small positive reading is likely, though this may be anticipated if the Jan services PMI on Tuesday pops back above the 50 boom/bust level, which it dipped below for the first time since December 2010.”
They note that in January 2011, the services PMI snapped back well above 50 and also on Thursday, the next BOE Governor, Carney will appear before the Treasury Committee in parliament. They feel that he is likely to show a more activist stance, which in current circumstances means more dovish. Further, they see that December trade and industrial production may pose some headline risks, but are too dated, given that Q4 GDP has been released, to contain much new information.