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BoJ to keep policy unchanged in its April meeting – BAML

FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to BofA-Merrill Lynch, BoJ will likely keep its policy unchanged in its 30th April meeting, and lower the FY15 price outlook.

Key Quotes

“We expect the BoJ to leave policy unchanged at its Monetary Policy Board meeting on 30 April. Although it is likely to lower the FY15 price outlook in its Outlook report set for release the same day, we expect its outlook for inflation to start rising in the fall and reach 2% in FY16 to remain unchanged.”

“Its decision to expand QQE last October was a surprise, but Governor Kuroda said at a press conference on 8 April that, unlike in October 2014, he currently sees little risk of deflation returning, and we do not think the situation has changed radically in a short time.”

“If the BoJ did announce another surprise easing, it would probably cause the market to question the credibility of its statements.”

“The BoJ will be forced into a more cautious monetary policy if prices do not rise in accordance with its outlook. At this stage, it will probably stick with its current QE formula built on expanding its balance sheet, but if it does opt for additional easing, given that it will be difficult for it to significantly increase the quantity of its JGB purchases and that any further declines in already low JGB yields would likely have limited impact, we think that rather than pursue greater quantity the BoJ is more likely to strengthen qualitatively, such as by lengthening the maturities of the JGBs it purchases, increasing its ETF purchases, and buying new types of financial assets.”

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