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23 Apr 2015
AUD/NZD: an attractive sell opportunity – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing the key developments in New Zealand in the Asian session, FX Strategists at TD Securities believe that the sudden spike in AUD/NZD after increasing expectations of a rate cut in NZ gives an attractive sell opportunity for parity.
Key Quotes
“The RBNZ’s McDermott—a known inflation hawk—delivered a speech on “The Dragon Slain? Near-zero inflation in New Zealand”. He noted that “there is little monetary policy can do to influence inflation outturns in the near-term” and that even with inflation sitting at 0.1% y/y, the inflation dragon is “merely sleeping”.”
“And, despite noting the strong positives that underpin the economy (strong employment, construction, etc.) and that the current level of policy is stimulative, the market latched onto the reference that signs of weakening demand and domestic inflationary pressure would prompt them to “consider lowering rates” undermined the NZD versus the USD and on the crosses. AUDNZD leapt to the 1.02 figure after trading sub-1.01 levels barely two trading sessions earlier.”
“Even if the RBNZ plans to cut (which is not our base case), it is unlikely they would do so imminently (their next meeting is on June 11th) and with the RBA meeting on May 5th—where we expect a cut—we think current price action in AUDNZD has offered up an attractive entry level to get short and look for this cross to push towards parity.”
Key Quotes
“The RBNZ’s McDermott—a known inflation hawk—delivered a speech on “The Dragon Slain? Near-zero inflation in New Zealand”. He noted that “there is little monetary policy can do to influence inflation outturns in the near-term” and that even with inflation sitting at 0.1% y/y, the inflation dragon is “merely sleeping”.”
“And, despite noting the strong positives that underpin the economy (strong employment, construction, etc.) and that the current level of policy is stimulative, the market latched onto the reference that signs of weakening demand and domestic inflationary pressure would prompt them to “consider lowering rates” undermined the NZD versus the USD and on the crosses. AUDNZD leapt to the 1.02 figure after trading sub-1.01 levels barely two trading sessions earlier.”
“Even if the RBNZ plans to cut (which is not our base case), it is unlikely they would do so imminently (their next meeting is on June 11th) and with the RBA meeting on May 5th—where we expect a cut—we think current price action in AUDNZD has offered up an attractive entry level to get short and look for this cross to push towards parity.”