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17 Apr 2015
Australia/New Zealand CPI preview - Capital Economics
FXStreet (Bali) - Paul Dales, Chief Economist Australia/New Zealand at Capital Economics, expects the consumer price data for the first quarter to show that headline inflation fell to 1% in Australia and to almost zero in New Zealand.
Key Quotes
"We expect the consumer price data for the first quarter to show that headline inflation fell to 1% in Australia and to almost zero in New Zealand. Since these falls are due to the one-off effects of the drop in petrol prices, they won’t permanently reduce inflation expectations and headline inflation in both economies will rebound just as sharply early next year."
"That said, it is the benign outlook for underlying or core inflation that underpins our forecasts that interest rates in both Australia and New Zealand will fall further this year than the markets currently expect."
"While policymakers will be happy to look through a temporary fall in headline inflation, particularly when it boosts the spending power of households, they will not tolerate further significant falls in underlying inflation. The weaker currencies will support underlying inflation over the next year."
"This will be more than offset, however, by the greater drag from weaker GDP growth and wage growth. Underlying inflation will therefore test the lower bounds of the ranges targeted by both the RBA and the RBNZ."
Key Quotes
"We expect the consumer price data for the first quarter to show that headline inflation fell to 1% in Australia and to almost zero in New Zealand. Since these falls are due to the one-off effects of the drop in petrol prices, they won’t permanently reduce inflation expectations and headline inflation in both economies will rebound just as sharply early next year."
"That said, it is the benign outlook for underlying or core inflation that underpins our forecasts that interest rates in both Australia and New Zealand will fall further this year than the markets currently expect."
"While policymakers will be happy to look through a temporary fall in headline inflation, particularly when it boosts the spending power of households, they will not tolerate further significant falls in underlying inflation. The weaker currencies will support underlying inflation over the next year."
"This will be more than offset, however, by the greater drag from weaker GDP growth and wage growth. Underlying inflation will therefore test the lower bounds of the ranges targeted by both the RBA and the RBNZ."