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17 Apr 2015
Remaining bearish on the Euro - BTMU
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd explained why they are still bearish on the euro.
Key Quotes:
"Why we remain bearish on the euro is in part our view that the market is under- estimating the potential ‘portfolio re-balancing’ impact of QE in the euro-zone."
"The fact that QE is coupled with a negative deposit rate and less net issuance of sovereign debt means the impact on yields is far greater and hence the potential for capital flight abroad is also far greater."
"By way of comparison, taking the exact periods covering QE1, QE2 and all of QE3 conducted by the Fed, US investors purchased foreign securities (bonds and equities) totalling USD 622bn.That despite UST bonds going nowhere close to yielding negative rates."
"The portfolio flow data from the ECB certainly indicates a pick-up in terms of foreign security purchases by euro-zone investors, in particular into foreign bonds. The 6-month average purchase total by euro-zone investors of foreign bonds and equities stood at EUR 33.5bn in January, which on an annualized basis equates to about EUR 400bn."
"Foreign investors continue to buy euro- equities but falling bond yields has resulted in net selling of euro-zone bonds. In the 6-month period to January, foreign investors sold EUR 38bn worth of euro-zone debt securities. As more and more debt securities fall to negative yields, the greater the portfolio shift is likely to become."
Key Quotes:
"Why we remain bearish on the euro is in part our view that the market is under- estimating the potential ‘portfolio re-balancing’ impact of QE in the euro-zone."
"The fact that QE is coupled with a negative deposit rate and less net issuance of sovereign debt means the impact on yields is far greater and hence the potential for capital flight abroad is also far greater."
"By way of comparison, taking the exact periods covering QE1, QE2 and all of QE3 conducted by the Fed, US investors purchased foreign securities (bonds and equities) totalling USD 622bn.That despite UST bonds going nowhere close to yielding negative rates."
"The portfolio flow data from the ECB certainly indicates a pick-up in terms of foreign security purchases by euro-zone investors, in particular into foreign bonds. The 6-month average purchase total by euro-zone investors of foreign bonds and equities stood at EUR 33.5bn in January, which on an annualized basis equates to about EUR 400bn."
"Foreign investors continue to buy euro- equities but falling bond yields has resulted in net selling of euro-zone bonds. In the 6-month period to January, foreign investors sold EUR 38bn worth of euro-zone debt securities. As more and more debt securities fall to negative yields, the greater the portfolio shift is likely to become."