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Tin tức giao dịch
16 Apr 2015
NZD/USD bears alerted in overbought territory
FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7676 with a high of 0.7698 and a low of 0.7577.
NZD/USD's low for april seems a long way off now, when it was trading down at 0.7391. It rallied on to the 0.76 handle over the course of the month, dropped back to 0.7423 and has since recovered and mark a new high today at 0.7698 despite the disappointments in the Fonterra's dairy prices this week that showed Wholemilk powder prices falling by 4.3% which puts prices down at 38.7% y/y.
The real driver of course is the weakness in the greenback and unwinding of US dollar long position as we progress through the week. Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation explained that when the US dollar trend is clear, NZD/USD follows suit (i.e. a US rise causes a NZD/USD fall). "This relationship seldom breaks down and then only for short periods. In other words, NZD/USD direction is more about US matters than NZ matters."
Technically, however, we are in to over bought territory, with RSI (14) on the hurly chart reading at 75.80. Imre Speizer expects, over a three mont term, that the bird will drop back lower to at least 0.72 . "NZ economic data should soon reflect a mid-year dip. Importantly, CPI is expected to be below zero for Q1 when it is released on 20 April. Then on 30 April, the RBNZ is likely to note concern regarding the high trade-weighted NZD (second chart). Q1 GDP (released in June) should also be weak (drought effects). While NZ economic data softens during the next few months, US economic data is poised to surprise positively".
NZD/USD's low for april seems a long way off now, when it was trading down at 0.7391. It rallied on to the 0.76 handle over the course of the month, dropped back to 0.7423 and has since recovered and mark a new high today at 0.7698 despite the disappointments in the Fonterra's dairy prices this week that showed Wholemilk powder prices falling by 4.3% which puts prices down at 38.7% y/y.
The real driver of course is the weakness in the greenback and unwinding of US dollar long position as we progress through the week. Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation explained that when the US dollar trend is clear, NZD/USD follows suit (i.e. a US rise causes a NZD/USD fall). "This relationship seldom breaks down and then only for short periods. In other words, NZD/USD direction is more about US matters than NZ matters."
Technically, however, we are in to over bought territory, with RSI (14) on the hurly chart reading at 75.80. Imre Speizer expects, over a three mont term, that the bird will drop back lower to at least 0.72 . "NZ economic data should soon reflect a mid-year dip. Importantly, CPI is expected to be below zero for Q1 when it is released on 20 April. Then on 30 April, the RBNZ is likely to note concern regarding the high trade-weighted NZD (second chart). Q1 GDP (released in June) should also be weak (drought effects). While NZ economic data softens during the next few months, US economic data is poised to surprise positively".