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16 Apr 2015
Six non-bombastic observations from the TIC data – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Mark Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, highlights 6 key points about foreign holdings of US treasuries, as noted in yesterday’s release of Treasury report on capital flows.
Key Quotes
“Foreign investors owned $6.162 trillion of US Treasuries in February. Although this was a $56.6 bln decline on the month, it is $272 bln above year ago levels. Officials account for a full two-thirds of this at $4.086 trillion. The official holdings fell $38.1 bln in February and were up $16.9 bln from a year ago.”
“Both Japanese and Chinese holdings fell in February. Japan's holdings fell $14.2 bln to $1.2244 trillion. Japanese investors own about $13.6 bln more Treasuries than they did in February 2014. Chinese holdings fell by $15.4 bln to $1.2237 trillion. Japan and China combined account for ~40% of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries.”
“There has been much speculation that with the drop in price of oil, OPEC would not be buying US Treasuries and perhaps even selling some. However, the TIC data does not confirm this hypothesis. OPEC holdings of US Treasuries rose $6 bln in February to $296.8 bln. This is a $53 bln increase year-over-year.”
“Russia continued to divest itself of US Treasuries. Their holdings fell $13.6 bln in February to $69.6 bln. A year ago, it held $126.2 bln.”
“South Korea's Treasury holdings also fell in February. The $1.8 bln decline brings Korean investment in Treasuries to $63.8 bln. From a year ago, Korea's holdings are up $7.1 bln. Owing to the lack of transparency, some suspect that Korea may have intervened in the forward market and/or shifted funds into a sovereign wealth fund.”
“India is in the process of rebuilding its reserves, which bottomed in April 2013. It boosted its Treasury holdings by $10.5 bln in February to $101.7 bln. Since last February, its reserve have grown by roughly $50 bln and India's Treasury holdings have increased by $34.7 bln in that time.”
Key Quotes
“Foreign investors owned $6.162 trillion of US Treasuries in February. Although this was a $56.6 bln decline on the month, it is $272 bln above year ago levels. Officials account for a full two-thirds of this at $4.086 trillion. The official holdings fell $38.1 bln in February and were up $16.9 bln from a year ago.”
“Both Japanese and Chinese holdings fell in February. Japan's holdings fell $14.2 bln to $1.2244 trillion. Japanese investors own about $13.6 bln more Treasuries than they did in February 2014. Chinese holdings fell by $15.4 bln to $1.2237 trillion. Japan and China combined account for ~40% of the foreign holdings of US Treasuries.”
“There has been much speculation that with the drop in price of oil, OPEC would not be buying US Treasuries and perhaps even selling some. However, the TIC data does not confirm this hypothesis. OPEC holdings of US Treasuries rose $6 bln in February to $296.8 bln. This is a $53 bln increase year-over-year.”
“Russia continued to divest itself of US Treasuries. Their holdings fell $13.6 bln in February to $69.6 bln. A year ago, it held $126.2 bln.”
“South Korea's Treasury holdings also fell in February. The $1.8 bln decline brings Korean investment in Treasuries to $63.8 bln. From a year ago, Korea's holdings are up $7.1 bln. Owing to the lack of transparency, some suspect that Korea may have intervened in the forward market and/or shifted funds into a sovereign wealth fund.”
“India is in the process of rebuilding its reserves, which bottomed in April 2013. It boosted its Treasury holdings by $10.5 bln in February to $101.7 bln. Since last February, its reserve have grown by roughly $50 bln and India's Treasury holdings have increased by $34.7 bln in that time.”