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Berita trading
16 Apr 2015
US initial jobless claims might disappoint - KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team previews the key US data releases today, and expect the jobless claims to surprise to the upside.
Key Quotes
“The European eco calendar is uneventful today, but the US one remains interesting. After having weakened sharply since the end of last year it will be interesting to see whether there are finally signs of improvement in the Philadelphia Fed index in April. The consensus is looking for a marginal improvement from 5 to 6, but we see risks for a bigger improvement, supported by more favourable weather conditions and as the impact of the stronger dollar might start to fade.”
“Better weather conditions are also expected to boost housing starts in March as weather conditions improved during the month. The consensus is looking for a rebound by 15.9% M/M to a total of 1040K. Overall however, weather conditions remained below average and therefore we believe that the risks are for a more limited rebound in March, before a further pick up in the coming months.”
“Building permits are forecast to show a limited decline by 1.9% M/M following a 4% gain in February.”
“Finally, US initial jobless claims are forecast little changed in the week ending the 11th of April (280 000 vs 281 000 in the week before). We believe however that the risks are for an upward surprise in the week after Easter, but swings in both directions are possible as seasonal factors often cause distortions around the timing of Easter.”
Key Quotes
“The European eco calendar is uneventful today, but the US one remains interesting. After having weakened sharply since the end of last year it will be interesting to see whether there are finally signs of improvement in the Philadelphia Fed index in April. The consensus is looking for a marginal improvement from 5 to 6, but we see risks for a bigger improvement, supported by more favourable weather conditions and as the impact of the stronger dollar might start to fade.”
“Better weather conditions are also expected to boost housing starts in March as weather conditions improved during the month. The consensus is looking for a rebound by 15.9% M/M to a total of 1040K. Overall however, weather conditions remained below average and therefore we believe that the risks are for a more limited rebound in March, before a further pick up in the coming months.”
“Building permits are forecast to show a limited decline by 1.9% M/M following a 4% gain in February.”
“Finally, US initial jobless claims are forecast little changed in the week ending the 11th of April (280 000 vs 281 000 in the week before). We believe however that the risks are for an upward surprise in the week after Easter, but swings in both directions are possible as seasonal factors often cause distortions around the timing of Easter.”