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Berita trading
16 Apr 2015
ECB may be divided on whether early end to buying is possible – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team comments on yesterday’s ECB meeting, noting that Draghi’s choice of wording reflects the ECB might be divided on the decision of continuing the purchase program till end of September 2016.
Key Quotes
“Mr Draghi seemed to give a strong signal today emphasising the persistence of the current monetary policy stance but a very careful choice of wording is designed to send a strong message while retaining significant wriggle‐room if this should be required in the future.”
“Our sense is that this approach also enables a consensus to be created between ECB governing council officials who may harbour somewhat different views as to how policy should evolve if and as circumstances change.”
“As in the two previous opening policy statements, Mr Draghi noted today that ‘Purchases are intended to run until the end of September 2016 and, in any case, until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to 2%, over the medium term.’”
“It is not entirely clear as to whether this wording implies bond purchases will run for at least eighteen months or might be halted earlier if inflation picks up more quickly than expected.”
“The use of the word ‘intended’ in this context is notable because of its rather stilted usage in previous ECB statements. Indeed, last December Draghi attempted to provide some clarification of its meaning; ‘yes, indeed, intended is different from expected. It’s not simply an expectation, it’s an intention but it’s not yet a target. So, it’s something in between.”
“There was a vast majority of the members of the Governing Council but the decision was not unanimous.’”
“So, we interpret its use in the present context as a compromise that serves to create a forceful impression that bond purchases will not be curtailed before September 2016 at the earliest while allowing for some possibility that this might not be the case.”
Key Quotes
“Mr Draghi seemed to give a strong signal today emphasising the persistence of the current monetary policy stance but a very careful choice of wording is designed to send a strong message while retaining significant wriggle‐room if this should be required in the future.”
“Our sense is that this approach also enables a consensus to be created between ECB governing council officials who may harbour somewhat different views as to how policy should evolve if and as circumstances change.”
“As in the two previous opening policy statements, Mr Draghi noted today that ‘Purchases are intended to run until the end of September 2016 and, in any case, until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to 2%, over the medium term.’”
“It is not entirely clear as to whether this wording implies bond purchases will run for at least eighteen months or might be halted earlier if inflation picks up more quickly than expected.”
“The use of the word ‘intended’ in this context is notable because of its rather stilted usage in previous ECB statements. Indeed, last December Draghi attempted to provide some clarification of its meaning; ‘yes, indeed, intended is different from expected. It’s not simply an expectation, it’s an intention but it’s not yet a target. So, it’s something in between.”
“There was a vast majority of the members of the Governing Council but the decision was not unanimous.’”
“So, we interpret its use in the present context as a compromise that serves to create a forceful impression that bond purchases will not be curtailed before September 2016 at the earliest while allowing for some possibility that this might not be the case.”