NZD/USD eyes 0.570 by year-end – ING

Markets anticipate a 25bps RBNZ rate cut to 2.25%, likely the terminal rate, with signals pointing to limited further easing in 2026, supporting NZD/USD toward 0.570 by year-end, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Terminal rate in sight as NZ disinflation slows

"We expect a 25bp rate cut tonight in New Zealand (announcement at 0300 AM CET). That would take rates to 2.25%, which we believe is the terminal rate, as disinflation may prove slower than previously expected and growth more resilient."

"The statement should not entirely close the door to more easing, but we think the new rate projections will signal no more cuts. That would be enough of a hawkish message to trim some of the lingering expectations for more easing in 2026 (42bp priced in by May) and lift NZD."

"We remain bullish on NZD/USD and expect a return above 0.570 by year-end."