NZD/USD holds near cyclical lows after mixed Q3 CPI – BBH

NZD/USD is directionless just above last week’s cyclical low of 0.5683. New Zealand Q3 CPI was mixed, BBH FX analysts report.

RBNZ policy flexibility keeps NZD under pressure

"Headline CPI rose a tick more than expected by 1.0% q/q vs. 0.9% in Q2 driven by property rates and related services. Year-over-year, headline CPI matched consensus and RBNZ projection at 3.0% (highest since Q2 2024) vs. 2.7% in Q2. The largest contributors to the annual inflation rate were all in the housing and household utilities group (electricity, rent, and local authority rates and payments)."

"More importantly, underlying inflation is within the RBNZ’s 1 to 3% target range. That leaves room for the RBNZ to deliver more cuts and is a headwind for NZD. The RBNZ sectoral factor model printed for a second consecutive quarter at 2.7% y/y and an average of core inflation measures remained near 2.5% y/y in Q3."