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21 Jul 2025
DXY: Consolidation on the daily chart – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) traded mixed as markets took stock of the rebound off its lows. The Dollar Index (DXY) was last at 98.50 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
2-way trades likely in the interim
"Better-than-expected US data and fears of tariff implication on CPI were some of the factors behind USD’s bounce. But we had also flagged last week there were tentative signs of exhaustion seen in USD bounce. Comments from Fed officials, including Waller and Mary Daly on Fed cut appeared to have partially curtailed some of USD’s strength."
"There was also a WSJ report of Treasury secretary Bessent signalling to Trump that Fed officials have indicated 2 rate cuts before year ends. Trump also mentioned that a couple of 'big' trade deals are coming 'soon'. There is not much tier-1 data for markets to digest this week apart from prelim PMIs (Thursday) and durable goods orders (Friday)."
"Near term, DXY may be caught in 2-way trades, with headlines likely taking over from data. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI was flat. 2-way trades likely in the interim as markets look for the next catalyst. Resistance at 98.66 (50 DMA), 99.60 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Support at 97.70 (21 DMA), 97 levels."