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11 Jul 2025
EIA expects no further increase in US crude oil production – Commerzbank
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its forecast for US crude oil production further downwards, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
EIA cuts US oil output forecast again
"It now expects an annual average production volume of 13.37 million barrels per day for this year (previously 13.41 million). The majority of the downward revision relates to the past three months and July. The EIA expects production volumes to remain below 13.5 million barrels per day until next spring and fall to 13.25 million barrels per day by the end of next year."
"The fact that US crude oil production is unlikely to increase any further is primarily attributable to shale oil production in the Permian Basin. Until last year, the largest shale oil deposit was the driving force behind the increase in US oil production."
"However, the production volume there is expected to barely increase from now on and to fall slightly next year. The significant drop in drilling activity is taking its toll here."